But that didn’t address the real succession issue: does Bashar have what it takes to rule? Clearly, Bashar doesn’t exude the uncompromising power that made the stooped figure of his father so feared and respected. He’s a thoughtful fellow with a pinched mouth and soft manner, who wasn’t even his dad’s first choice as heir. (Assad had originally tapped his eldest son, Basel, a charismatic military officer who died in a car crash on a foggy Damascus road in 1994.) Bashar’s priority now will be to face down any rivals, including his uncle Rifaat, who once tried to oust Hafez. Rifaat’s allies in the military have already been pushed aside, and younger pro-Bashar officers have been promoted. “Rifaat could stir up trouble, but he can’t make a serious challenge anymore,” says a Western diplomat in Damascus.
Nobody will mistake Bashar for Mr. Charisma. But the younger Assad, a bachelor and one of four surviving siblings, does have some significant attributes. While his older brother was making his name in the Syrian military, Bashar was in London training to be an ophthalmologist and getting a taste of life in a modern democracy. (He reportedly used an alias in London, presumably for his own safety.) While there, he apparently became intrigued by the power of technology. “He’s a computer nerd,” says Assad biographer Patrick Seale, a British journalist. “He thrives on computer magazines.”
Since Bashar’s return to Syria in 1994–to be groomed as successor–he has also developed a reputation as someone determined to clean up corruption. He led an anti-graft drive in recent months, including the arrest of 32 senior officials. (Former prime minister Mahmoud Zoubi, the focus of the campaign, shot himself three weeks ago.) “It’s a very promising moment,” says Seale. “His anti-corruption drive scared the s–t out of everybody, but it was absolutely necessary to clean up public life to attract investment.”
Bashar is the latest of a new generation of Arab leaders with little experience but also a fresher, more modern outlook on the world. These include King Abdullah of Jordan and King Mohammed VI of Morocco, both of whom have good relations with Israel. Will Bashar follow suit? Some believe that he won’t be able to move Syria into the Information Age without making peace. But he’ll also have to respect the powerful legacy of his father, who wanted a peace settlement, but only on his terms.
The elder Assad may be remembered largely for what he didn’t do: he never won a war with Israel, and never won admiration as a peacemaker; he lost Syrian land (as Syrian Defense minister, in 1967) and never got it back. Yet, from the view of his many admirers, these apparent failures reflect the attributes of a shrewd and principled leader who never gave in to the pressures of the United States and Israel. Many Arabs take a long view of history, and may believe that Assad’s real legacy will be sealed by his successor. At the very least, Bashar will want to match his father’s most obvious success: in the rough world of Syrian politics, the elder Assad lived long, and died a natural death.
